Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 22

RED Star FC 93–PAU

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 6 February 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'PAUJ. Anziani (penalty)
68'PAUO. Sissoko (assist: G. Versini)
86'PAUK. Dong (assist: R. Touzghar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		PAU
18	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
530	Passes	394
490	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.47 · PAU 1.12. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots RED Star FC 93 18 · PAU 9; on target 2 and 4.
RED Star FC 93 kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Lesage→

3.94

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “PAU to win” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for RED Star FC 93, 1.17 for PAU.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,253 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win42.4%

Draw28.1%

PAU to win29.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw70.5%

12 — any result other than a draw71.9%

X2 — draw or PAU win57.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time43.7%

Level at half-time38.7%

PAU lead at half-time17.6%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level82.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or PAU ahead56.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1253 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 11Actual: 14
PAU: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 4Actual: 8
PAU: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.47

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAU concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAU score1.12

Attack: PAU score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.8%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1253 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 54 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.