Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 21

Saint Etienne–Boulogne

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'BoulogneM. Lecolier (assist: A. El Farissi)
26'Saint EtienneJoão Ferreira · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Saint Etienne		Boulogne
4	Shots	18
0	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	7
5	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
551	Passes	346
458	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Saint Etienne 1.86 · Boulogne 0.95. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Saint Etienne 4 · Boulogne 18; on target 0 and 6.
Saint Etienne kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

A. Valnet→

3.44

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.4%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for Saint Etienne, 0.94 for Boulogne.
The highest double chance value is 85.6% (1X — Saint Etienne win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,252 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Saint Etienne to win64.4%

Draw21.2%

Boulogne to win14.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Saint Etienne lead at half-time67.0%

Level at half-time30.3%

Boulogne lead at half-time2.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Saint Etienne ahead or level97.4%

12 — not level at half-time69.7%

X2 — level or Boulogne ahead33.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1252 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Saint Etienne: at least 12Actual: 13
Boulogne: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Saint Etienne: at least 5Actual: 2
Boulogne: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.86

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Boulogne's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boulogne score0.95

Attack: Boulogne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%2–010.8%1–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.