Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 21

Montpellier–Guingamp

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Friday, 30 January 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'GuingampL. Mafouta (assist: G. Ott)
42'MontpellierEverson (assist: N. Mbuku)
45'MontpellierA. Mendy (penalty)
79'MontpellierA. Mendy (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Montpellier		Guingamp
12	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
292	Passes	441
232	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Montpellier 1.31 · Guingamp 1.24. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Montpellier 12 · Guingamp 9; on target 7 and 2.
Guingamp kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

B. Roffet→

3.40

yellows per match

0.60

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “Montpellier to win”. Second comes “Guingamp to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Montpellier, 1.09 for Guingamp.
The highest double chance value is 69.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,244 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Montpellier to win38.7%

Draw30.1%

Guingamp to win31.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

23	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Montpellier lead at half-time21.0%

Level at half-time44.6%

Guingamp lead at half-time34.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Montpellier ahead or level65.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Guingamp ahead79.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1244 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Montpellier: at least 15Actual: 23
Guingamp: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Montpellier: at least 4Actual: 3
Guingamp: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Montpellier score1.31

Attack: Montpellier score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Guingamp's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Guingamp score1.24

Attack: Guingamp score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Montpellier's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–011.2%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.