Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 20

RED Star FC 93–Boulogne

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'RED Star FC 93D. Durand (penalty)
45+6'RED Star FC 93K. Cabral · red card
69'BoulogneJ. Boyer (assist: J. Martin)
73'BoulogneV. Burlet (assist: D. Thiam)
85'RED Star FC 93P. Meïssa Ba (assist: S. Khaoui)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Boulogne
9	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	3
49%	Possession	51%
343	Passes	371
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.40 · Boulogne 0.98. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots RED Star FC 93 9 · Boulogne 11; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

P. Gaillouste→

3.63

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for RED Star FC 93, 0.83 for Boulogne.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,240 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win49.4%

Draw29.3%

Boulogne to win21.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	21

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time53.7%

Level at half-time37.7%

Boulogne lead at half-time8.6%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level91.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.3%

X2 — level or Boulogne ahead46.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1240 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 12Actual: 9
Boulogne: at least 13Actual: 21

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 4Actual: 8
Boulogne: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.40

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boulogne's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boulogne score0.98

Attack: Boulogne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.5%1–114.5%2–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.