Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 19

Estac Troyes–Reims

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Estac TroyesM. Detourbet (assist: M. Adeline)
42'Estac TroyesM. Diop · red card
45'Estac TroyesM. Ifnaoui (assist: M. Detourbet)
90'ReimsK. Nakamura (assist: T. Leoni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estac Troyes		Reims
12	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	9
1	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
302	Passes	483
217	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estac Troyes 1.39 · Reims 1.18. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Estac Troyes 12 · Reims 15; on target 3 and 4.
Reims kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

A. Valnet→

3.42

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Estac Troyes to win”. Second comes “Reims to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Estac Troyes, 1.15 for Reims.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,231 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estac Troyes to win38.3%

Draw29.5%

Reims to win32.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Estac Troyes lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time41.2%

Reims lead at half-time29.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Estac Troyes ahead or level70.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Reims ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1231 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estac Troyes: at least 10Actual: 12
Reims: at least 14Actual: 19

Corners

Estac Troyes: at least 3Actual: 3
Reims: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.39

Attack: Estac Troyes score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Reims concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Reims score1.18

Attack: Reims score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–010.4%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.