Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 18

Montpellier–Dunkerque

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 5 January 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'DunkerqueGessime Yassine
58'DunkerqueV. Sasso (assist: Gessime Yassine)
68'DunkerqueT. Robinet (assist: Aristide Zossou)
83'MontpellierA. Mendy (assist: T. Savanier)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Montpellier		Dunkerque
10	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	11
7	Shots inside the box	10
8	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
439	Passes	478
364	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Montpellier 1.14 · Dunkerque 1.18. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Montpellier 10 · Dunkerque 16; on target 4 and 11.

Referee

A. Perreau Niel→

4.08

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Montpellier to win”. Second comes “Dunkerque to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Montpellier, 1.10 for Dunkerque.
The highest double chance value is 69.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,225 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Montpellier to win38.6%

Draw30.1%

Dunkerque to win31.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Montpellier lead at half-time20.7%

Level at half-time44.7%

Dunkerque lead at half-time34.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Montpellier ahead or level65.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Dunkerque ahead79.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1225 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Montpellier: at least 14Actual: 10
Dunkerque: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Montpellier: at least 5Actual: 3
Dunkerque: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Montpellier score1.14

Attack: Montpellier score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dunkerque concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dunkerque score1.18

Attack: Dunkerque score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Montpellier's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–011.1%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.