Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 18

Clermont Foot–Laval

4–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Clermont FootI. Fakili (penalty)
49'Clermont FootE. Cantero
69'Clermont FootAbdellah Baallal
79'LavalT. Guivarch (own goal)
90'Clermont FootJ. Astic (assist: F. Diedhiou)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Clermont Foot		Laval
13	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	0
5	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
574	Passes	422
493	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Clermont Foot 1.11 · Laval 1.13. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Clermont Foot 13 · Laval 7; on target 7 and 0.
Clermont Foot kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

T. Leprodhomme→

3.00

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Clermont Foot to win”. Second comes “Laval to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Clermont Foot, 1.06 for Laval.
The highest double chance value is 68.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,218 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Clermont Foot to win35.7%

Draw31.3%

Laval to win32.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	20

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Clermont Foot lead at half-time28.0%

Level at half-time45.7%

Laval lead at half-time26.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Clermont Foot ahead or level73.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Laval ahead72.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1218 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Clermont Foot: at least 11Actual: 14
Laval: at least 13Actual: 20

Corners

Clermont Foot: at least 4Actual: 1
Laval: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Clermont Foot score1.11

Attack: Clermont Foot score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Laval's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Laval score1.13

Attack: Laval score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–011.8%0–111.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.