Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 17

RED Star FC 93–Reims

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Reims
5	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	4
1	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
382	Passes	455
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.18 · Reims 1.43. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots RED Star FC 93 5 · Reims 13; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

Karim Abed, France→

4.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Reims to win”. Second comes “RED Star FC 93 to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for RED Star FC 93, 1.42 for Reims.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,213 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win28.6%

Draw28.4%

Reims to win43.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw57.0%

12 — any result other than a draw71.6%

X2 — draw or Reims win71.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time39.1%

Reims lead at half-time30.6%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level69.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Reims ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1213 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 10Actual: 7
Reims: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 3Actual: 4
Reims: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.18

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Reims's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Reims score1.43

Attack: Reims score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–110.3%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1213 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 16 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.