Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 17

PAU–Amiens

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 12 December 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'AmiensI. Hamache (assist: Rayan Lutin)
57'PAUG. Versini (penalty)
90'AmiensK. Kaiboue (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAU		Amiens
16	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
490	Passes	328
420	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAU 1.83 · Amiens 0.97. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots PAU 16 · Amiens 8; on target 4 and 6.
PAU kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Faouzi Benchabane, France→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.5%: “PAU to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for PAU, 1.00 for Amiens.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (1X — PAU win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAU to win61.5%

Draw22.2%

Amiens to win16.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

24	Fouls	16

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — PAU win or draw83.7%

12 — any result other than a draw77.8%

X2 — draw or Amiens win38.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

PAU lead at half-time41.4%

Level at half-time39.4%

Amiens lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — PAU ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Amiens ahead58.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PAU: at least 13Actual: 24
Amiens: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

PAU: at least 6Actual: 8
Amiens: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAU score1.83

Attack: PAU score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amiens concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amiens score0.97

Attack: Amiens score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PAU's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–111.0%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1208 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 126 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.