Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 16

Grenoble–Nancy

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 5 December 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade des Alpes, Grenoble

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'NancyN. Saint-Ruf · red card
49'GrenobleJ. Benet (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Grenoble		Nancy
15	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	0
11	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	1
5	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
467	Passes	380
400	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Grenoble 1.34 · Nancy 1.12. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Grenoble 15 · Nancy 9; on target 5 and 0.
Grenoble kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Tifenn Leprodhomme, France→

4.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “Nancy to win”. Second comes “Grenoble to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Grenoble, 1.31 for Nancy.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,200 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Grenoble to win31.5%

Draw29.2%

Nancy to win39.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Grenoble lead at half-time39.7%

Level at half-time43.9%

Nancy lead at half-time16.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Grenoble ahead or level83.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Nancy ahead60.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1200 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Grenoble: at least 12Actual: 19
Nancy: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

Grenoble: at least 4Actual: 7
Nancy: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Grenoble score1.34

Attack: Grenoble score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nancy's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nancy score1.12

Attack: Nancy score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Grenoble concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%0–110.3%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.