Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 15

Saint Etienne–Nancy

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'Saint EtienneI. Cardona (assist: Z. Davitashvili)
51'Saint EtienneF. Tardieu (penalty)
57'NancyB. Bokangu (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Saint Etienne		Nancy
9	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
671	Passes	289
586	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Saint Etienne 2.00 · Nancy 0.87. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Saint Etienne 9 · Nancy 11; on target 2 and 3.
Saint Etienne kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Azzedine Souifi, France→

5.25

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.2%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Saint Etienne, 0.93 for Nancy.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — Saint Etienne win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,197 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Saint Etienne to win60.2%

Draw23.4%

Nancy to win16.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Saint Etienne lead at half-time53.0%

Level at half-time36.1%

Nancy lead at half-time11.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Saint Etienne ahead or level89.0%

12 — not level at half-time63.9%

X2 — level or Nancy ahead47.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1197 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Saint Etienne: at least 11Actual: 11
Nancy: at least 14Actual: 20

Corners

Saint Etienne: at least 4Actual: 4
Nancy: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Saint Etienne score2.00

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Nancy's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nancy score0.87

Attack: Nancy score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–111.0%2–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.