Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 14

Bastia–Reims

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Friday, 7 November 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'BastiaA. Roncaglia (assist: J. Guevara)
25'ReimsA. Tia (assist: T. Leoni)
28'ReimsH. Ibrahim
90'ReimsT. Teuma (assist: T. Diarra)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bastia		Reims
17	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
328	Passes	400
241	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bastia 1.24 · Reims 1.20. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Bastia 17 · Reims 9; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Antoine Valnet, France→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.0%: “Reims to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for Bastia, 1.24 for Reims.
The highest double chance value is 70.4% (X2 — draw or Reims win).
These values were computed from 1,181 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bastia to win29.6%

Draw30.4%

Reims to win40.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Bastia lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time42.1%

Reims lead at half-time30.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Bastia ahead or level70.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Reims ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1181 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bastia: at least 12Actual: 13
Reims: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Bastia: at least 4Actual: 2
Reims: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bastia score1.24

Attack: Bastia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Reims's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Reims score1.20

Attack: Reims score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Bastia concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–111.9%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.