Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 14

Dunkerque–Boulogne

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 November 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'DunkerqueT. Robinet (assist: Gessime Yassine)
90'BoulogneJ. Bultel (assist: J. Boyer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dunkerque		Boulogne
12	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	7
2	Offsides	4
65%	Possession	35%
483	Passes	238
416	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dunkerque 1.66 · Boulogne 0.87. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Dunkerque 12 · Boulogne 11; on target 4 and 4.
Dunkerque kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Remi Landry, France→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.5%: “Dunkerque to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Dunkerque, 0.85 for Boulogne.
The highest double chance value is 82.9% (1X — Dunkerque win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,181 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dunkerque to win57.5%

Draw25.4%

Boulogne to win17.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	23

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Dunkerque lead at half-time60.4%

Level at half-time33.6%

Boulogne lead at half-time6.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Dunkerque ahead or level93.9%

12 — not level at half-time66.4%

X2 — level or Boulogne ahead39.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1181 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dunkerque: at least 12Actual: 15
Boulogne: at least 13Actual: 23

Corners

Dunkerque: at least 4Actual: 3
Boulogne: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dunkerque score1.66

Attack: Dunkerque score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boulogne's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boulogne score0.87

Attack: Boulogne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dunkerque concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–012.7%2–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.