Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 14

Clermont Foot–Amiens

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 November 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Clermont Foot		Amiens
17	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
11	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
65%	Possession	35%
493	Passes	277
422	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Clermont Foot 1.29 · Amiens 1.12. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Clermont Foot 17 · Amiens 9; on target 5 and 4.
Clermont Foot kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Mickael Leleu, France→

2.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.7%: “Clermont Foot to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Clermont Foot, 1.03 for Amiens.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (1X — Clermont Foot win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,181 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Clermont Foot to win47.7%

Draw27.8%

Amiens to win24.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Clermont Foot win or draw75.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.2%

X2 — draw or Amiens win52.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Clermont Foot lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time44.7%

Amiens lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Clermont Foot ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Amiens ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1181 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Clermont Foot: at least 11Actual: 12
Amiens: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Clermont Foot: at least 5Actual: 11
Amiens: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Clermont Foot score1.29

Attack: Clermont Foot score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Amiens concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amiens score1.12

Attack: Amiens score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–011.2%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1181 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 47 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.