Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 13

Le Mans–Nancy

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 31 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MMArena, Le Mans

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'Le MansW. Harhouz (assist: E. Colas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Mans		Nancy
9	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
394	Passes	417
302	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Mans 1.63 · Nancy 0.95. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Le Mans 9 · Nancy 8; on target 2 and 1.

Referee

Pierre Gaillouste, France→

4.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “Le Mans to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Le Mans, 0.98 for Nancy.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (1X — Le Mans win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,172 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Mans to win46.6%

Draw28.7%

Nancy to win24.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	11

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Le Mans lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time46.8%

Nancy lead at half-time20.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Mans ahead or level79.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Nancy ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1172 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Mans: at least 12Actual: 12
Nancy: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Le Mans: at least 5Actual: 7
Nancy: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Mans score1.63

Attack: Le Mans score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nancy's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nancy score0.95

Attack: Nancy score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Mans's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–012.1%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.