Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 12

Estac Troyes–Amiens

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 28 October 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'AmiensY. Ikia Dimi
48'Estac TroyesTawfik Bentayeb (penalty)
53'Estac TroyesTawfik Bentayeb (assist: M. Ifnaoui)
89'Estac TroyesM. El Idrissy (assist: M. Detourbet)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estac Troyes		Amiens
17	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
476	Passes	399
404	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estac Troyes 1.87 · Amiens 0.77. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Estac Troyes 17 · Amiens 4; on target 4 and 2.
Estac Troyes kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Tifenn Leprodhomme, France→

2.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.5%: “Estac Troyes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Estac Troyes, 0.80 for Amiens.
The highest double chance value is 87.6% (1X — Estac Troyes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,163 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estac Troyes to win66.5%

Draw21.2%

Amiens to win12.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Estac Troyes lead at half-time46.2%

Level at half-time41.5%

Amiens lead at half-time12.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Estac Troyes ahead or level87.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Amiens ahead53.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1163 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estac Troyes: at least 12Actual: 16
Amiens: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Estac Troyes: at least 5Actual: 4
Amiens: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.87

Attack: Estac Troyes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amiens concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amiens score0.77

Attack: Amiens score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.5%1–011.3%1–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.