Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 11

Montpellier–Nancy

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'NancyR. Bamba
22'NancyE. Mendy · red card
44'MontpellierBećir Omeragić
48'MontpellierKhalil Fayad
63'MontpellierN. Pays (assist: C. Jullien)
80'MontpellierN. Mbuku (assist: Khalil Fayad)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Montpellier		Nancy
19	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	1
6	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
561	Passes	253
494	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Montpellier 1.25 · Nancy 1.01. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Montpellier 19 · Nancy 7; on target 9 and 3.
Montpellier kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Ahmed Taleb, France→

3.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.0%: “Montpellier to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Montpellier, 1.10 for Nancy.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — Montpellier win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,160 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Montpellier to win45.0%

Draw28.0%

Nancy to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Montpellier lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time45.8%

Nancy lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Montpellier ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Nancy ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1160 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Montpellier: at least 12Actual: 14
Nancy: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Montpellier: at least 4Actual: 9
Nancy: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Montpellier score1.25

Attack: Montpellier score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nancy's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nancy score1.01

Attack: Nancy score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Montpellier's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–010.4%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.