Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 11

Le Mans–Boulogne

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 October 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MMArena, Le Mans

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Le MansS. Yohou (assist: A. Lauray)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Mans		Boulogne
15	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
507	Passes	255
419	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Mans 1.42 · Boulogne 1.11. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Le Mans 15 · Boulogne 4; on target 6 and 1.
Le Mans kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Tifenn Leprodhomme, France→

1.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Le Mans to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Le Mans, 0.88 for Boulogne.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (1X — Le Mans win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,155 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Mans to win49.0%

Draw29.0%

Boulogne to win22.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Le Mans lead at half-time48.0%

Level at half-time41.9%

Boulogne lead at half-time10.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Mans ahead or level89.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Boulogne ahead52.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1155 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Mans: at least 13Actual: 11
Boulogne: at least 12Actual: 20

Corners

Le Mans: at least 4Actual: 10
Boulogne: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Mans score1.42

Attack: Le Mans score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boulogne's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boulogne score1.11

Attack: Boulogne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Mans's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–013.6%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.