Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 11

RED Star FC 93–Grenoble

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 October 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'RED Star FC 93B. Danger (assist: S. Khaoui)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Grenoble
15	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
57%	Possession	43%
465	Passes	349
398	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.59 · Grenoble 0.97. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots RED Star FC 93 15 · Grenoble 11; on target 5 and 5.
RED Star FC 93 kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Antoine Valnet, France→

7.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.1%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for RED Star FC 93, 0.96 for Grenoble.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,155 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win52.1%

Draw26.7%

Grenoble to win21.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time32.5%

Level at half-time44.1%

Grenoble lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Grenoble ahead67.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1155 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 11Actual: 10
Grenoble: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 4Actual: 9
Grenoble: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.59

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Grenoble's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Grenoble score0.97

Attack: Grenoble score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–011.6%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.