Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 7

RED Star FC 93–Estac Troyes

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 23 September 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'RED Star FC 93M. Huard
25'Estac TroyesM. Ifnaoui (assist: M. Adeline)
26'Estac TroyesA. Mille (assist: M. Adeline)
68'Estac TroyesJ. Assoumou

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Estac Troyes
12	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
59%	Possession	41%
461	Passes	327
387	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.22 · Estac Troyes 1.17. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots RED Star FC 93 12 · Estac Troyes 15; on target 4 and 8.
RED Star FC 93 kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Ahmed Taleb, France→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.8%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “Estac Troyes to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for RED Star FC 93, 1.26 for Estac Troyes.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,119 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win35.8%

Draw28.9%

Estac Troyes to win35.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	17

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time30.6%

Level at half-time44.7%

Estac Troyes lead at half-time24.7%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level75.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Estac Troyes ahead69.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1119 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 12Actual: 17
Estac Troyes: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 3Actual: 2
Estac Troyes: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.22

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.17

Attack: Estac Troyes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.2%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.