Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 6

Estac Troyes–Guingamp

5–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'GuingampJ. Hatchi (assist: A. Hemia)
24'Estac TroyesM. Diop (assist: M. Adeline)
27'Estac TroyesI. Boura
38'Estac TroyesJ. Assoumou (assist: I. Boura)
53'Estac TroyesM. Ifnaoui (assist: Tawfik Bentayeb)
80'Estac TroyesM. El Idrissy (assist: E. Odede)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estac Troyes		Guingamp
18	Shots	8
11	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
1	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
426	Passes	574
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estac Troyes 1.51 · Guingamp 1.09. On the pitch: 5-2.
Shots Estac Troyes 18 · Guingamp 8; on target 11 and 4.
Guingamp kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Mickael Leleu, France→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.7%: “Estac Troyes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Estac Troyes, 1.12 for Guingamp.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — Estac Troyes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,116 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estac Troyes to win51.7%

Draw25.4%

Guingamp to win23.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Estac Troyes lead at half-time32.0%

Level at half-time46.0%

Guingamp lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Estac Troyes ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Guingamp ahead68.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1116 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estac Troyes: at least 13Actual: 13
Guingamp: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Estac Troyes: at least 4Actual: 1
Guingamp: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.51

Attack: Estac Troyes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Guingamp's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Guingamp score1.09

Attack: Guingamp score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.7%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.