Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 6

Grenoble–Annecy

1–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 19 September 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade des Alpes, Grenoble

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'AnnecyQ. Paris (assist: Triston Rowe)
60'AnnecyT. Rambaud
83'AnnecyJ. Tiendrebeogo (assist: C. Billemaz)
90'GrenobleY. Diaby

Match statistics

Match statistics
Grenoble		Annecy
5	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	10
3	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
416	Passes	390
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Grenoble 1.28 · Annecy 1.04. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Grenoble 5 · Annecy 12; on target 3 and 7.

Referee

A. Perreau Niel→

4.21

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Grenoble to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Grenoble, 1.04 for Annecy.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (1X — Grenoble win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,110 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Grenoble to win39.6%

Draw30.4%

Annecy to win30.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Grenoble lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time44.9%

Annecy lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Grenoble ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Annecy ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1110 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Grenoble: at least 11Actual: 8
Annecy: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Grenoble: at least 4Actual: 4
Annecy: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Grenoble score1.28

Attack: Grenoble score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Annecy's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Annecy score1.04

Attack: Annecy score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Grenoble's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–011.9%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.