Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 5

Clermont Foot–Saint Etienne

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 September 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Clermont FootA. Camblan
52'Saint EtienneA. Boakye (assist: L. Stassin)
62'Saint EtienneL. Stassin (assist: I. Cardona)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Clermont Foot		Saint Etienne
12	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	6
2	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
398	Passes	525
327	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Clermont Foot 0.81 · Saint Etienne 1.61. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Clermont Foot 12 · Saint Etienne 15; on target 2 and 6.
Saint Etienne kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Taleb→

3.28

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.2%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Clermont Foot, 1.72 for Saint Etienne.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (X2 — draw or Saint Etienne win).
These values were computed from 1,107 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Clermont Foot to win22.2%

Draw25.6%

Saint Etienne to win52.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Clermont Foot lead at half-time18.5%

Level at half-time44.0%

Saint Etienne lead at half-time37.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Clermont Foot ahead or level62.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Saint Etienne ahead81.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1107 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Clermont Foot: at least 11Actual: 10
Saint Etienne: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Clermont Foot: at least 4Actual: 2
Saint Etienne: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Clermont Foot score0.81

Attack: Clermont Foot score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.61

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–210.7%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.