Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 4

RED Star FC 93–Annecy

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 29 August 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'RED Star FC 93D. Durand (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Annecy
5	Shots	5
1	Shots on target	0
3	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	4
6	Offsides	0
38%	Possession	62%
300	Passes	494
184	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.37 · Annecy 0.99. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots RED Star FC 93 5 · Annecy 5; on target 1 and 0.
Annecy kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Lesage→

3.98

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.3%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for RED Star FC 93, 0.89 for Annecy.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,091 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win51.3%

Draw27.8%

Annecy to win20.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time32.0%

Level at half-time43.2%

Annecy lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Annecy ahead68.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1091 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 11Actual: 14
Annecy: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 4Actual: 2
Annecy: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.37

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Annecy's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Annecy score0.99

Attack: Annecy score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–013.1%2–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.