Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 24

Hatayspor–Alanyaspor

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 February 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mersin Stadyumu, Mersin

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'HataysporF. Bamgboye
90+5'AlanyasporL. Augusto · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hatayspor		Alanyaspor
14	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
322	Passes	424
235	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hatayspor 1.33 · Alanyaspor 1.43. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Hatayspor 14 · Alanyaspor 16; on target 5 and 4.
Alanyaspor kept the ball more (57%).

Unavailable players

Hatayspor

K. Alıcıdoubtful · injury
L. Diackdoubtful · injury

Alanyaspor

B. Bulutout · Knee Injury
Richardout · yellow-card suspension
Yusuf Özdemirout · yellow-card suspension

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

A. Kayatepe→

3.60

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Alanyaspor to win”. Second comes “Hatayspor to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Hatayspor, 1.58 for Alanyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 904 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hatayspor to win30.0%

Draw26.6%

Alanyaspor to win43.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	16

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hatayspor lead at half-time31.9%

Level at half-time41.6%

Alanyaspor lead at half-time26.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Hatayspor ahead or level73.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Alanyaspor ahead68.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 903 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hatayspor: at least 13Actual: 16
Alanyaspor: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Hatayspor: at least 4Actual: 3
Alanyaspor: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hatayspor score1.33

Attack: Hatayspor score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Alanyaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alanyaspor score1.43

Attack: Alanyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hatayspor concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–210.0%2–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.