Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 38

Pescara–Spezia

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 8 May 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Pescara

Goals and red cards

10'PescaraD. Faraoni
73'SpeziaG. Artistico (assist: G. Lapadula)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pescara		Spezia
11	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	1
6	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
468	Passes	306
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pescara 1.51 · Spezia 1.41. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Pescara 11 · Spezia 7; on target 6 and 1.
Pescara kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

D. Doveri→

3.29

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.0%: “Pescara to win”. Second comes “Spezia to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Pescara, 1.41 for Spezia.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pescara to win39.0%

Draw26.7%

Spezia to win34.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Pescara lead at half-time42.8%

Level at half-time40.2%

Spezia lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Pescara ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Spezia ahead57.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pescara: at least 14Actual: 11
Spezia: at least 16Actual: 20

Corners

Pescara: at least 5Actual: 3
Spezia: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pescara score1.51

Attack: Pescara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spezia's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Spezia score1.41

Attack: Spezia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pescara concede 30% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.5%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.