Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 38

Venezia–Palermo

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 8 May 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

46'VeneziaI. Doumbia (assist: John Yeboah)
90'VeneziaM. Compagnon (assist: G. Busio)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Venezia		Palermo
21	Shots	13
9	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	2
4	Offsides	4
62%	Possession	38%
499	Passes	307
417	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Venezia 1.85 · Palermo 0.94. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Venezia 21 · Palermo 13; on target 9 and 2.
Venezia kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

A. Zanotti→

2.80

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.9%: “Venezia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Venezia, 0.94 for Palermo.
The highest double chance value is 82.8% (1X — Venezia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Venezia to win58.9%

Draw23.9%

Palermo to win17.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Venezia win or draw82.8%

12 — any result other than a draw76.1%

X2 — draw or Palermo win41.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Venezia lead at half-time39.2%

Level at half-time43.1%

Palermo lead at half-time17.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Venezia ahead or level82.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Palermo ahead60.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Venezia: at least 13Actual: 15
Palermo: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Venezia: at least 4Actual: 6
Palermo: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Venezia score1.85

Attack: Venezia score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Palermo's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Palermo score0.94

Attack: Palermo score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Venezia concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.9%2–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1510 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 113 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.