Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 37

Empoli–Avellino

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 1 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

58'EmpoliM. Lovato (assist: Gerard Yepes)
90+7'AvellinoAlessandro Fontanarosa · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Empoli		Avellino
17	Shots	5
9	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
305	Passes	419
215	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Empoli 1.59 · Avellino 0.92. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Empoli 17 · Avellino 5; on target 9 and 2.
Avellino kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

F. La Penna→

4.53

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.8%: “Empoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Empoli, 0.92 for Avellino.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (1X — Empoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,500 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Empoli to win52.8%

Draw26.9%

Avellino to win20.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

21	Fouls	22

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

Double chance

1X — Empoli win or draw79.6%

12 — any result other than a draw73.1%

X2 — draw or Avellino win47.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Empoli lead at half-time30.7%

Level at half-time45.3%

Avellino lead at half-time24.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Empoli ahead or level76.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Avellino ahead69.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1500 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Empoli: at least 15Actual: 21
Avellino: at least 13Actual: 22

Corners

Empoli: at least 5Actual: 4
Avellino: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Empoli score1.59

Attack: Empoli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Avellino's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Avellino score0.92

Attack: Avellino score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Empoli's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–012.2%2–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.