Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 37

Sampdoria–Sudtirol

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 1 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

31'SampdoriaO. Abildgaard (assist: M. Brunori)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sampdoria		Sudtirol
8	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
363	Passes	329
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sampdoria 1.27 · Sudtirol 0.96. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Sampdoria 8 · Sudtirol 8; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

M. Marchetti→

4.02

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Sampdoria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Sampdoria, 0.96 for Sudtirol.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (1X — Sampdoria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,500 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sampdoria to win42.7%

Draw30.4%

Sudtirol to win26.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Sampdoria win or draw73.1%

12 — any result other than a draw69.6%

X2 — draw or Sudtirol win57.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sampdoria lead at half-time26.2%

Level at half-time48.1%

Sudtirol lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Sampdoria ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time51.9%

X2 — level or Sudtirol ahead73.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1500 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sampdoria: at least 13Actual: 15
Sudtirol: at least 17Actual: 21

Corners

Sampdoria: at least 4Actual: 4
Sudtirol: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sampdoria score1.27

Attack: Sampdoria score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sudtirol's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sudtirol score0.96

Attack: Sudtirol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sampdoria's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.9%0–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.