Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 36

Frosinone–Carrarese

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone

Goals and red cards

54'FrosinoneGiacomo Calò (penalty)
71'FrosinoneA. Fiori (assist: Giacomo Calò)
90'FrosinoneB. Kone (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Frosinone		Carrarese
20	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
8	Corners	8
2	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
366	Passes	272
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Frosinone 1.95 · Carrarese 0.95. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Frosinone 20 · Carrarese 15; on target 4 and 3.
Frosinone kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Rapuano→

4.73

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.8%: “Frosinone to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Frosinone, 0.95 for Carrarese.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (1X — Frosinone win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,493 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Frosinone to win60.8%

Draw22.9%

Carrarese to win16.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Frosinone win or draw83.7%

12 — any result other than a draw77.1%

X2 — draw or Carrarese win39.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Frosinone lead at half-time50.2%

Level at half-time39.0%

Carrarese lead at half-time10.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Frosinone ahead or level89.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Carrarese ahead49.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1493 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Frosinone: at least 14Actual: 10
Carrarese: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Frosinone: at least 5Actual: 8
Carrarese: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Frosinone score1.95

Attack: Frosinone score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Carrarese's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Carrarese score0.95

Attack: Carrarese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Frosinone's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–111.0%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1493 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 73 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.