Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 35

Empoli–Virtus Entella

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

13'Virtus EntellaBernat Guiu (assist: F. Mezzoni)
50'EmpoliL. Magnino (assist: S. Shpendi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Empoli		Virtus Entella
15	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
425	Passes	262
331	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Empoli 1.48 · Virtus Entella 1.02. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Empoli 15 · Virtus Entella 9; on target 2 and 1.
Empoli kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

L. Marinelli→

3.97

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.3%: “Empoli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Empoli, 1.02 for Virtus Entella.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (1X — Empoli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,489 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Empoli to win47.3%

Draw28.0%

Virtus Entella to win24.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Empoli lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time45.9%

Virtus Entella lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Empoli ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Virtus Entella ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1489 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Empoli: at least 13Actual: 11
Virtus Entella: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Empoli: at least 4Actual: 6
Virtus Entella: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Empoli score1.48

Attack: Empoli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Virtus Entella's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Virtus Entella score1.02

Attack: Virtus Entella score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Empoli's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–011.3%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.