Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 34

Monza–Bari

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: U-Power Stadium, Monza

Goals and red cards

50'MonzaPedro Obiang (assist: A. Petagna)
79'MonzaM. Pessina (assist: G. Caso)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Monza		Bari
18	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	0
15	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
65%	Possession	35%
551	Passes	301
478	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Monza 2.03 · Bari 0.58. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Monza 18 · Bari 7; on target 8 and 0.
Monza kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

F. La Penna→

4.57

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.3%: “Monza to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Monza, 0.58 for Bari.
The highest double chance value is 91.7% (1X — Monza win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,475 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Monza to win72.3%

Draw19.4%

Bari to win8.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Monza lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time44.6%

Bari lead at half-time18.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Monza ahead or level81.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Bari ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1475 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Monza: at least 13Actual: 8
Bari: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Monza: at least 6Actual: 7
Bari: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Monza score2.03

Attack: Monza score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Bari concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bari score0.58

Attack: Bari score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Monza concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.7%1–014.3%3–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.