Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 32

Sampdoria–Avellino

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

72'SampdoriaM. Brunori
80'SampdoriaM. Palma (assist: Nicholas Pierini)
84'AvellinoT. Biasci (assist: M. Sala)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sampdoria		Avellino
10	Shots	3
5	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	3
2	Offsides	3
47%	Possession	53%
283	Passes	331
204	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sampdoria 1.42 · Avellino 0.85. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sampdoria 10 · Avellino 3; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

D. Chiffi→

3.98

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.9%: “Sampdoria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Sampdoria, 0.85 for Avellino.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (1X — Sampdoria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,457 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sampdoria to win49.9%

Draw28.9%

Avellino to win21.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	26

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Sampdoria win or draw78.7%

12 — any result other than a draw71.1%

X2 — draw or Avellino win50.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sampdoria lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time46.1%

Avellino lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sampdoria ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Avellino ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1457 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sampdoria: at least 15Actual: 16
Avellino: at least 14Actual: 26

Corners

Sampdoria: at least 4Actual: 9
Avellino: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sampdoria score1.42

Attack: Sampdoria score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Avellino concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Avellino score0.85

Attack: Avellino score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sampdoria's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–014.0%2–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.