Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 32

Juve Stabia–Spezia

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

32'SpeziaGiuseppe Aurelio (assist: Alessandro Romano)
45'Juve StabiaG. Leone (penalty)
74'Juve StabiaC. Pierobon (assist: C. Dalle Mura)
89'Juve StabiaA. Okoro (assist: M. Ricciardi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Juve Stabia		Spezia
20	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
513	Passes	404
440	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Juve Stabia 1.28 · Spezia 1.05. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Juve Stabia 20 · Spezia 8; on target 8 and 2.
Juve Stabia kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

D. Di Marco→

4.33

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Juve Stabia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Juve Stabia, 1.05 for Spezia.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (1X — Juve Stabia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,449 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Juve Stabia to win40.9%

Draw29.9%

Spezia to win29.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Juve Stabia lead at half-time40.4%

Level at half-time42.4%

Spezia lead at half-time17.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Juve Stabia ahead or level82.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Spezia ahead59.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1449 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Juve Stabia: at least 15Actual: 9
Spezia: at least 15Actual: 14

Corners

Juve Stabia: at least 5Actual: 3
Spezia: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Juve Stabia score1.28

Attack: Juve Stabia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spezia's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Spezia score1.05

Attack: Spezia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Juve Stabia's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–011.6%0–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.