Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 31

Venezia–Padova

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 17 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

41'VeneziaM. Svoboda (assist: Gianluca Busio)
46'VeneziaI. Doumbia
74'VeneziaKike Pérez (assist: Antoine Hainaut)
82'PadovaA. Capelli (assist: K. Lasagna)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Venezia		Padova
30	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	3
21	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
621	Passes	326
548	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Venezia 2.30 · Padova 0.55. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Venezia 30 · Padova 8; on target 9 and 3.
Venezia kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

V. Crezzini→

3.89

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.0%: “Venezia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.30 for Venezia, 0.55 for Padova.
The highest double chance value is 93.9% (1X — Venezia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,441 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Venezia to win78.0%

Draw15.9%

Padova to win6.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Venezia lead at half-time58.4%

Level at half-time34.9%

Padova lead at half-time6.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Venezia ahead or level93.3%

12 — not level at half-time65.1%

X2 — level or Padova ahead41.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1441 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Venezia: at least 13Actual: 9
Padova: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Venezia: at least 5Actual: 9
Padova: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Venezia score2.30

Attack: Venezia score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Padova's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Padova score0.55

Attack: Padova score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Venezia concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–016.0%1–012.7%3–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.