Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 29

Frosinone–Sampdoria

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone

Goals and red cards

25'FrosinoneA. Fiori (assist: Anthony Oyono)
49'FrosinoneAntonio Raimondo (assist: F. Gelli)
64'FrosinoneN. Corrado

Match statistics

Match statistics
Frosinone		Sampdoria
24	Shots	9
10	Shots on target	1
16	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
10	Corners	2
1	Offsides	4
48%	Possession	52%
349	Passes	396
253	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Frosinone 1.60 · Sampdoria 0.96. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Frosinone 24 · Sampdoria 9; on target 10 and 1.

Referee

F. La Penna→

4.64

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.9%: “Frosinone to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Frosinone, 0.96 for Sampdoria.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (1X — Frosinone win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,425 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Frosinone to win51.9%

Draw26.8%

Sampdoria to win21.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Frosinone lead at half-time42.1%

Level at half-time43.0%

Sampdoria lead at half-time14.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Frosinone ahead or level85.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Sampdoria ahead57.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1425 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Frosinone: at least 14Actual: 16
Sampdoria: at least 15Actual: 14

Corners

Frosinone: at least 4Actual: 10
Sampdoria: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Frosinone score1.60

Attack: Frosinone score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Sampdoria's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sampdoria score0.96

Attack: Sampdoria score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Frosinone's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–011.6%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.