Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 29

Venezia–Reggiana

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

15'VeneziaRidgeciano Haps (assist: I. Doumbia)
71'VeneziaI. Doumbia

Match statistics

Match statistics
Venezia		Reggiana
22	Shots	11
10	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	8
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
562	Passes	288
492	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Venezia 2.24 · Reggiana 0.58. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Venezia 22 · Reggiana 11; on target 10 and 3.
Venezia kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

D. Chiffi→

4.03

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.1%: “Venezia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.24 for Venezia, 0.58 for Reggiana.
The highest double chance value is 93.1% (1X — Venezia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,423 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Venezia to win76.1%

Draw17.0%

Reggiana to win6.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Venezia win or draw93.1%

12 — any result other than a draw83.0%

X2 — draw or Reggiana win23.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Venezia lead at half-time59.2%

Level at half-time33.6%

Reggiana lead at half-time7.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Venezia ahead or level92.7%

12 — not level at half-time66.4%

X2 — level or Reggiana ahead40.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1423 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Venezia: at least 13Actual: 17
Reggiana: at least 14Actual: 11

Corners

Venezia: at least 5Actual: 5
Reggiana: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Venezia score2.24

Attack: Venezia score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Reggiana's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Reggiana score0.58

Attack: Reggiana score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Venezia concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.5%1–012.7%3–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.