Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 28

Frosinone–Pescara

2–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 4 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone

Goals and red cards

2'PescaraA. Di Nardo (assist: L. Meazzi)
33'PescaraA. Di Nardo (assist: G. Brugman)
82'PescaraGiorgio Altare · red card
85'FrosinoneGiacomo Calò (penalty)
90'FrosinoneAntonio Raimondo (assist: Gabriele Calvani)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Frosinone		Pescara
19	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	6
16	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
12	Corners	1
2	Offsides	4
64%	Possession	36%
377	Passes	229
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Frosinone 2.24 · Pescara 0.88. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Frosinone 19 · Pescara 13; on target 6 and 6.
Frosinone kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

D. Di Marco→

4.28

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.8%: “Frosinone to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.24 for Frosinone, 0.88 for Pescara.
The highest double chance value is 88.1% (1X — Frosinone win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,416 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Frosinone to win68.8%

Draw19.4%

Pescara to win11.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Frosinone win or draw88.1%

12 — any result other than a draw80.6%

X2 — draw or Pescara win31.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Frosinone lead at half-time49.1%

Level at half-time39.1%

Pescara lead at half-time11.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Frosinone ahead or level88.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Pescara ahead50.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1416 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Frosinone: at least 14Actual: 11
Pescara: at least 15Actual: 18

Corners

Frosinone: at least 5Actual: 12
Pescara: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Frosinone score2.24

Attack: Frosinone score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Pescara concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pescara score0.88

Attack: Pescara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Frosinone's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.4%2–110.8%1–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1416 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 27 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.