Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 27

Spezia–Reggiana

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia

Goals and red cards

40'ReggianaA. Novakovich (assist: N. Girma)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Spezia		Reggiana
22	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	1
15	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	1
0	Offsides	5
66%	Possession	34%
462	Passes	253
365	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spezia 1.58 · Reggiana 0.87. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Spezia 22 · Reggiana 7; on target 5 and 1.
Spezia kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

L. Zufferli→

3.98

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.7%: “Spezia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Spezia, 0.87 for Reggiana.
The highest double chance value is 80.6% (1X — Spezia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,405 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spezia to win53.7%

Draw26.9%

Reggiana to win19.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	21

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Spezia win or draw80.6%

12 — any result other than a draw73.1%

X2 — draw or Reggiana win46.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Spezia lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time42.5%

Reggiana lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Spezia ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Reggiana ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1405 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spezia: at least 14Actual: 14
Reggiana: at least 15Actual: 21

Corners

Spezia: at least 5Actual: 7
Reggiana: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spezia score1.58

Attack: Spezia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Reggiana's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Reggiana score0.87

Attack: Reggiana score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Spezia's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–012.9%2–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.