Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 26

Carrarese–Monza

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara

Goals and red cards

49'MonzaHernani

Match statistics

Match statistics
Carrarese		Monza
10	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
343	Passes	429
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Carrarese 1.01 · Monza 1.40. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Carrarese 10 · Monza 9; on target 4 and 2.
Monza kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

R. Abisso→

4.58

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “Monza to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Carrarese, 1.40 for Monza.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (X2 — draw or Monza win).
These values were computed from 1,397 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Carrarese to win25.7%

Draw28.8%

Monza to win45.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Carrarese win or draw54.5%

12 — any result other than a draw71.2%

X2 — draw or Monza win74.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Carrarese lead at half-time20.0%

Level at half-time45.9%

Monza lead at half-time34.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Carrarese ahead or level65.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Monza ahead80.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1397 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Carrarese: at least 12Actual: 14
Monza: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

Carrarese: at least 4Actual: 4
Monza: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Carrarese score1.01

Attack: Carrarese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monza concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Monza score1.40

Attack: Monza score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Carrarese's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–111.8%1–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.