Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 25

Cesena–Venezia

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Cesena

Goals and red cards

38'VeneziaG. Busio
45'VeneziaA. Adorante (assist: John Yeboah)
62'VeneziaAntoine Hainaut (assist: I. Doumbia)
90'VeneziaLion Lauberbach (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cesena		Venezia
11	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
33%	Possession	67%
296	Passes	619
231	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cesena 1.10 · Venezia 1.47. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Cesena 11 · Venezia 14; on target 4 and 7.
Venezia kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

S. Galipo→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Venezia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Cesena, 1.47 for Venezia.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (X2 — draw or Venezia win).
These values were computed from 1,384 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cesena to win26.9%

Draw28.0%

Venezia to win45.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cesena win or draw54.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.0%

X2 — draw or Venezia win73.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Cesena lead at half-time21.0%

Level at half-time42.3%

Venezia lead at half-time36.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Cesena ahead or level63.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Venezia ahead79.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1384 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cesena: at least 13Actual: 11
Venezia: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Cesena: at least 4Actual: 5
Venezia: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cesena score1.10

Attack: Cesena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Venezia concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Venezia score1.47

Attack: Venezia score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Cesena's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–110.5%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1384 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 62 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.