Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 23

Spezia–Virtus Entella

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia

Goals and red cards

18'SpeziaG. Artistico (assist: M. Valoti)
30'Virtus EntellaL. Cuppone (assist: Bernat Guiu)
33'Virtus EntellaBernat Guiu · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Spezia		Virtus Entella
11	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
430	Passes	262
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spezia 1.53 · Virtus Entella 0.91. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Spezia 11 · Virtus Entella 11; on target 4 and 3.
Spezia kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

G. Ayroldi→

5.86

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.5%: “Spezia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Spezia, 0.91 for Virtus Entella.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (1X — Spezia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,368 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spezia to win51.5%

Draw27.5%

Virtus Entella to win21.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Spezia lead at half-time28.4%

Level at half-time47.7%

Virtus Entella lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Spezia ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.3%

X2 — level or Virtus Entella ahead71.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1368 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spezia: at least 13Actual: 14
Virtus Entella: at least 16Actual: 11

Corners

Spezia: at least 5Actual: 6
Virtus Entella: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spezia score1.53

Attack: Spezia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Virtus Entella's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Virtus Entella score0.91

Attack: Virtus Entella score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spezia's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–012.7%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.