Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 22

Virtus Entella–Frosinone

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

50'Virtus EntellaL. Cuppone (assist: Bernat Guiu)
90'FrosinoneA. Fiori (assist: M. Zilli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Virtus Entella		Frosinone
16	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	8
1	Offsides	4
42%	Possession	58%
263	Passes	371
169	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Virtus Entella 1.26 · Frosinone 1.27. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Virtus Entella 16 · Frosinone 11; on target 5 and 3.
Frosinone kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. Galipo→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.0%: “Frosinone to win”. Second comes “Virtus Entella to win” at 35.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Virtus Entella, 1.27 for Frosinone.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,351 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Virtus Entella to win35.1%

Draw28.9%

Frosinone to win36.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Virtus Entella win or draw64.0%

12 — any result other than a draw71.1%

X2 — draw or Frosinone win64.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Virtus Entella lead at half-time22.9%

Level at half-time46.1%

Frosinone lead at half-time31.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Virtus Entella ahead or level69.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Frosinone ahead77.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1351 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Virtus Entella: at least 15Actual: 18
Frosinone: at least 13Actual: 20

Corners

Virtus Entella: at least 5Actual: 3
Frosinone: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Virtus Entella score1.26

Attack: Virtus Entella score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Frosinone's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Frosinone score1.27

Attack: Frosinone score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Virtus Entella's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–19.2%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.