Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 22

Empoli–Modena

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

81'ModenaSteven Nador · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Empoli		Modena
9	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
348	Passes	415
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Empoli 1.06 · Modena 1.31. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Empoli 9 · Modena 13; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

G. Mucera→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “Modena to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Empoli, 1.31 for Modena.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (X2 — draw or Modena win).
These values were computed from 1,351 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Empoli to win28.9%

Draw29.6%

Modena to win41.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Empoli win or draw58.5%

12 — any result other than a draw70.4%

X2 — draw or Modena win71.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Empoli lead at half-time24.5%

Level at half-time45.6%

Modena lead at half-time29.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Empoli ahead or level70.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.4%

X2 — level or Modena ahead75.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1351 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Empoli: at least 13Actual: 10
Modena: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Empoli: at least 3Actual: 5
Modena: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (45.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Empoli score1.06

Attack: Empoli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Modena concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Modena score1.31

Attack: Modena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Empoli's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–111.4%1–29.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1351 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 21 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.