Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 21

Monza–Pescara

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: U-Power Stadium, Monza

Goals and red cards

34'MonzaHernani (assist: Andrea Carboni)
49'MonzaHernani (assist: Paulo Azzi)
78'MonzaPaulo Azzi (assist: L. Colombo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Monza		Pescara
8	Shots	20
5	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	8
0	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
339	Passes	332
247	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Monza 2.28 · Pescara 0.56. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Monza 8 · Pescara 20; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

I. Pezzuto→

5.41

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.4%: “Monza to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.28 for Monza, 0.56 for Pescara.
The highest double chance value is 93.6% (1X — Monza win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,341 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Monza to win77.4%

Draw16.3%

Pescara to win6.4%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	17

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Monza lead at half-time44.5%

Level at half-time41.5%

Pescara lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Monza ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Pescara ahead55.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1341 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Monza: at least 14Actual: 12
Pescara: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Monza: at least 6Actual: 8
Pescara: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Monza score2.28

Attack: Monza score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Pescara concede 45% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pescara score0.56

Attack: Pescara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monza concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.8%1–012.6%3–012.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.