Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 19
HT 0–1
| Mantova | Palermo | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 3 | Shots inside the box | 14 |
| 4 | Goalkeeper saves | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Offsides | 1 |
| 64% | Possession | 36% |
| 601 | Passes | 328 |
| 470 | Accurate passes |
3.71
yellows per match
0.14
reds per match
7
matches of data
7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →
| 231 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
|---|
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
|---|
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
|---|
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).
First-half double chance
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1328 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
Fouls
Corners
These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.
When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →
The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
Attack: Mantova score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Palermo's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).
Attack: Palermo score above the league average (33% more).
Opponent's defence: Mantova concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.
Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.62 goals.
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 1328 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 56 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.