Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 19

Cesena–Empoli

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Cesena

Goals and red cards

47'EmpoliR. Ilie (assist: Andrea Ghion)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cesena		Empoli
17	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
12	Corners	2
5	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
567	Passes	306
480	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cesena 1.58 · Empoli 0.89. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Cesena 17 · Empoli 11; on target 6 and 4.
Cesena kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Paride Tremolada, Italy→

6.38

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.2%: “Cesena to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Cesena, 0.89 for Empoli.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (1X — Cesena win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,327 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cesena to win53.2%

Draw27.0%

Empoli to win19.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cesena lead at half-time34.5%

Level at half-time43.5%

Empoli lead at half-time21.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Cesena ahead or level78.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Empoli ahead65.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1327 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cesena: at least 14Actual: 7
Empoli: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Cesena: at least 5Actual: 12
Empoli: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cesena score1.58

Attack: Cesena score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Empoli's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Empoli score0.89

Attack: Empoli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cesena concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–012.7%2–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.