Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 19

Virtus Entella–Monza

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

84'Virtus EntellaA. Franzoni (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Virtus Entella		Monza
12	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	8
1	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
311	Passes	479
219	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Virtus Entella 0.98 · Monza 1.40. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Virtus Entella 12 · Monza 16; on target 4 and 5.
Monza kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Mario Perri, Italy→

5.63

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.0%: “Monza to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Virtus Entella, 1.40 for Monza.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (X2 — draw or Monza win).
These values were computed from 1,320 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Virtus Entella to win25.0%

Draw29.0%

Monza to win46.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Virtus Entella lead at half-time23.2%

Level at half-time48.0%

Monza lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Virtus Entella ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or Monza ahead76.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1320 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Virtus Entella: at least 13Actual: 14
Monza: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Virtus Entella: at least 4Actual: 4
Monza: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Virtus Entella score0.98

Attack: Virtus Entella score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monza concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Monza score1.40

Attack: Monza score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Virtus Entella's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–112.2%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.