Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 18

Sampdoria–Reggiana

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

14'ReggianaM. Portanova (assist: M. Rover)
26'SampdoriaF. Conti
88'SampdoriaA. Barak

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sampdoria		Reggiana
15	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
329	Passes	273
232	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sampdoria 1.43 · Reggiana 0.90. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sampdoria 15 · Reggiana 7; on target 4 and 4.
Sampdoria kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Giuseppe Collu, Italy→

4.40

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.1%: “Sampdoria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Sampdoria, 0.90 for Reggiana.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Sampdoria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,312 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sampdoria to win49.1%

Draw28.6%

Reggiana to win22.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	25

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sampdoria lead at half-time29.1%

Level at half-time44.8%

Reggiana lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sampdoria ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Reggiana ahead70.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1312 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sampdoria: at least 14Actual: 19
Reggiana: at least 14Actual: 25

Corners

Sampdoria: at least 5Actual: 5
Reggiana: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sampdoria score1.43

Attack: Sampdoria score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Reggiana's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Reggiana score0.90

Attack: Reggiana score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sampdoria's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–013.2%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.