Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 17

Monza–Carrarese

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: U-Power Stadium, Monza

Goals and red cards

9'MonzaSamuele Birindelli
44'MonzaF. Delli Carri
55'MonzaSamuele Birindelli (assist: P. Ciurria)
74'CarrareseF. Di Stefano
84'MonzaA. Petagna (assist: L. Colombo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Monza		Carrarese
16	Shots	9
13	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
5	Corners	8
5	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
472	Passes	460
400	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Monza 1.83 · Carrarese 0.69. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Monza 16 · Carrarese 9; on target 13 and 4.

Referee

Daniele Perenzoni, Italy→

3.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.1%: “Monza to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for Monza, 0.69 for Carrarese.
The highest double chance value is 88.0% (1X — Monza win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,301 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Monza to win65.1%

Draw22.9%

Carrarese to win12.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Monza win or draw88.0%

12 — any result other than a draw77.1%

X2 — draw or Carrarese win34.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.9%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Monza lead at half-time42.1%

Level at half-time43.2%

Carrarese lead at half-time14.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Monza ahead or level85.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Carrarese ahead57.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1301 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Monza: at least 13Actual: 12
Carrarese: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Monza: at least 5Actual: 5
Carrarese: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Monza score1.83

Attack: Monza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Carrarese concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Carrarese score0.69

Attack: Carrarese score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monza concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.2%2–014.0%1–111.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1301 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 16 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.